Monday, December 7, 2015

Why MSU doesn't need to apologize for beating UM on final play

It still hasn't gone away.  All over the landscape of college football, people still are calling the 27-23 victory over the Wolverines, fluky or lucky.  It could be considered those things only if you consider the final play in no context.

I look at it differently.  I see it as the Wolverines running out of luck.  There are metrics that can be used to determine how dominant a team is.  There are yards gained, first downs, and time of possession.  The Spartans led in ALL of these categories.
Yards: 386 MSU, 230 UM
Time of Possession: 30:11 MSU 29:49 UM
First Downs: MSU 20  UM 10

MSU also committed less penalties.  UM stayed in the game because of a horrible call  where the referees (after having two plays in a row overturned, both of which were initially called touchdowns for UM) ruled the UM running back still was making forward progress for a full twelve seconds where he clearly was making none.  If the Wolverines don't score there, they are down 21-16 needing a touchdown to win, instead of merely needing a punt.

So onto the punt itself.  There was more going on with the play than a botched snap.
Dantanio and the Spartans had better situation awareness.  Realizing that any punt that was successfully kicked would result in a Wolverine victory, Dantanio blitzed all eleven men.  The Wolverines should have realized this and max protected with ten guys.  Instead, the Wolverines sent gunners, and even linemen went downfield to cover a punt, that didn't need to be covered. MSU had no one back.  What the play did, is allow MSU to outnumber UM in the backfield and be in position to win.  If UM max protects, the punter probably gets the punt off or at least falls on the ball.  Probably any scenario happens other than throwing the ball to a MSU player.

Even after recovering the fumble, the Spartans still needed a 38 yard return.  That probably doesn't happen if Wolverine players aren't downfield.  Jalen Watts-Jackson was close to being tackled as it was.
So there you go.  Reasonable people have absolutely no reason to claim UM was better in the game or UM deserved to win.  They didn't deserve to win for two reasons.  One, Dantonio outcoached Harbaugh by light years.  Secondly, though MSU was luckier on that final play, MSU made their own luck, and the Wolverines' undeserved luck ran out.

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