Why MSU doesn't need to apologize for beating UM on final play

It still hasn't gone away.  All over the landscape of college football, people still are calling the 27-23 victory over the Wolverines, fluky or lucky.  It could be considered those things only if you consider the final play in no context.

I look at it differently.  I see it as the Wolverines running out of luck.  There are metrics that can be used to determine how dominant a team is.  There are yards gained, first downs, and time of possession.  The Spartans led in ALL of these categories.
Yards: 386 MSU, 230 UM
Time of Possession: 30:11 MSU 29:49 UM
First Downs: MSU 20  UM 10

MSU also committed less penalties.  UM stayed in the game because of a horrible call  where the referees (after having two plays in a row overturned, both of which were initially called touchdowns for UM) ruled the UM running back still was making forward progress for a full twelve seconds where he clearly was making none.  If the Wolverines don't score there, they are down 21-16 needing a touchdown to win, instead of merely needing a punt.

So onto the punt itself.  There was more going on with the play than a botched snap.
Dantanio and the Spartans had better situation awareness.  Realizing that any punt that was successfully kicked would result in a Wolverine victory, Dantanio blitzed all eleven men.  The Wolverines should have realized this and max protected with ten guys.  Instead, the Wolverines sent gunners, and even linemen went downfield to cover a punt, that didn't need to be covered. MSU had no one back.  What the play did, is allow MSU to outnumber UM in the backfield and be in position to win.  If UM max protects, the punter probably gets the punt off or at least falls on the ball.  Probably any scenario happens other than throwing the ball to a MSU player.

Even after recovering the fumble, the Spartans still needed a 38 yard return.  That probably doesn't happen if Wolverine players aren't downfield.  Jalen Watts-Jackson was close to being tackled as it was.
So there you go.  Reasonable people have absolutely no reason to claim UM was better in the game or UM deserved to win.  They didn't deserve to win for two reasons.  One, Dantonio outcoached Harbaugh by light years.  Secondly, though MSU was luckier on that final play, MSU made their own luck, and the Wolverines' undeserved luck ran out.

Jin Delaney is going to screw over a division winner.

Jim Delaney has gone on record as saying he will pick the highest ranked team from his conference to represent the Big Ten in the Rose Bowl.  This is almost guaranteed to be OSU.

OSU will move up some on Tuesday by virtue of teams ahead of them in the polls losing and by virtue of destroying UM in the Big House.  I get that.  But they will move up again after being idle, simply because they can't lose next weekend.  They can't lose because they weren't good enough to win their division and earn a trip to Indy.  This should not be rewarded.

They should treated as an 11-2 team for purposes of a choosing a Rose Bowl team.  They should be given this loss since they weren't able to even play in a game that either Iowa or MSU will lose.  This way if Iowa wins, you treat OSU and MSU as 11-2 and put MSU in by virtue of beating the Buckeyes in Columbus.  If MSU wins in Indy you would have 12-1 Iowa and 11-2 OSU to compare.

I might be making too big of a deal about this, since the conference championship game loser probably gets a New Years Six game.

Projections for CFP rankings week 13

Great week for Spartans athletics in general, with the win over Kansas for the basketball team leading to a number three ranking in the AP poll, and of course MSU football literally destroying the Buckeyes, causing the players to lose confidence in the coaches play calling.

MSU more than doubled the Buckeyes in yardage from scrimmage and more than tripled then in first downs.  Even had Geiger missed the kick, MSU likely wins in overtime.


Now on to the projections.

1. Clemson

Clemson stays undefeated, and will stay at number one.  The committee needs Clemson to stay at number one to have a reason to  keep Notre Dame alive.  Notre Dame travels well and would be guaranteed ratings.

2. Alabama

Alabama made it through their bye week, crushing their FCS competition.  Alabama won't make the the number one spot, but they were dominant enough to stay at number two.

3. Iowa

This is the week Iowa makes the top 4.  With only two undefeated teams left, the committee can no longer keep the Hawkeyes out of the top 4.  I think they jump Notre Dame, since the Irish struggled with BC.

4. Notre Dame

The Irish stay in the top 4 virtue of their quality loss to Clemson and overall schedule.  They don't move up due to the BC game being close.

5 Michigan State

The Spartans have the best win in FBS after defeating OSU and move right back into contention.  Win out and Sparty is assured of a place in the playoff.

Sorry, Drew Sharp, you were wrong again

Not quite two weeks ago Drew Sharp wrote an article HERE about Michigan State having no chance to make the College Football Playoff.  Mr. Sharp wrote the article on the heels of the Nebraska loss.  We all remember it.  A Nebraska team better than their record showed as they have several close losses this year, playing in Lincoln and getting some help from a clearly confused officiating crew.

Clearly Drew forgot that last year there was only a single undefeated team in the CFP last year, and that things can change in a hurry.

Michigan State is sixth in ap poll and a virtual lock to be in the playoff with two more wins.